Water Resources Modelling

The UNEP-DHI Centre is able to combining water resources models with downscaled climate models to support resilience to climate change in river basins.

This is another relatively new area for the Centre, which is looking to draw on the expertise and experience of DHI to both further strengthen the scientific basis of its policy work and develop pilot projects that generate useful lessons that can benefit other initiatives and contribute to a greater understanding in the related field. References include the following project in the Nile Basin which combines water resource models and climate change models to identify the areas that will be most affected in the coming years, as well as remedial actions.

Assignment name:
Nile Basin Climate Change
Start date (month/year): 10/2008
Completion date (month/year): 10/2010
Country: Egypt
Location within country:Egypt
Duration of assignment (months):24
Name of Client:
UNEP Risø for Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation
Total No of staff-months of the assignment: 8
Narrative description of Project:

DHI, the UK Met Office Hadley Centre and the Egyptian Ministry for Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI) are collaborating on the project “Regional Climate Modelling of the Nile Basin: Preparation of climate scenario outputs for assessment of impact on water resources in the Nile Basin”. This project is funded by UNEP and UNESCO. The Nile is a crucial resource for agriculture, energy production and the economy of eastern and north-eastern Africa. Therefore, the assessment of the impact climate change may have on water resources is critical for the region and its people. The overall objective is to assess the possible impacts of climate change on the Nile river flow and in particular the inflow to the High Aswan Dam. There are large uncertainties in General Circulation Model (GCM) projections of climate change over the Nile. Therefore, this project will use a Regional Climate Model (RCM) to dynamically downscale to a spatial scale of relevance to hydrological assessment. An ensemble approach will be used to address the uncertainty related to climate change predictions.

Assignment name:
Lake Faguibine System
Start date (month/year): 8/2010
Completion date (month/year): 8/2011
Country: Mali
Location within country:Lake Faguibine
Duration of assignment (months):12
Name of Client:
United Nations Environment Programme
Total No of staff-months of the assignment:12 (not full time)
Narrative description of Project:

In 2007 DHI helped to develop a water resources model of the entire Niger Basin using MIKE BASIN. This model includes a schematic representation of the Inner Delta, and is capable of simulating the flood peak and duration under different water resources development and management scenarios. DHI conducted a training course on this model for the NBA (Niger Basin Authority) member states’ representatives in Niamey in December 2010. This model was used to extract time series of discharge at Diré which can then be used as input to the hydraulic model. In the late eighties a hydraulic model of the Lake Faguibine System was developed using third party software. This model required updating due to topographic changes that have occurred since its development. The objective of this project is to combine existing models of the Upper Niger River Basin and the Inner Delta with an updated model of the Lake Faguibine System to predict flood extent and duration for better management of the Lake Faguibine System.